Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 11.219102 12.873462 14.660490 16.730900 19.060064 21.595731 24.561546
2025-03-23 8.911018 11.169375 13.801745 17.082749 21.047557 25.667942 31.442959
2025-03-30 7.824605 10.376186 13.497071 17.568573 22.710320 28.955462 37.078878
2025-04-06 6.726534 9.393895 12.803003 17.437817 23.526470 31.198196 41.533479
2025-04-13 5.603933 8.206335 11.668352 16.553774 23.202359 31.857082 43.882707
2025-04-20 5.126761 7.821487 11.531818 16.936602 24.515015 34.653791 49.109589
2025-04-27 4.711451 7.466909 11.383604 17.257977 25.722505 37.331341 54.272779
2025-05-04 4.237896 6.970853 10.977673 17.159019 26.301972 39.141659 58.297743
2025-05-11 3.792334 6.466863 10.506875 16.910175 26.620535 40.566456 61.810863
2025-05-18 3.472899 6.124882 10.243650 16.936960 27.322428 42.547117 66.183462
2025-05-25 3.230401 5.880850 10.105963 17.134158 28.273824 44.916734 71.209736
2025-06-01 2.969149 5.578540 9.847043 17.112566 28.871252 46.767163 75.523519
2025-06-08 2.692251 5.228348 9.490310 16.919933 29.206174 48.264166 79.424602
2025-06-15 2.507607 5.022622 9.356558 17.080499 30.109639 50.675818 84.840409
2025-06-22 2.408219 4.960198 9.458340 17.635316 31.675210 54.183194 92.103003
2025-06-29 2.204868 4.683293 9.161494 17.480304 32.041592 55.780881 96.386893
2025-07-06 1.917463 4.215118 8.482706 16.602199 31.119022 55.225263 97.147770
2025-07-13 1.831883 4.136229 8.508810 16.983243 32.383634 58.320046 103.999485
2025-07-20 1.745136 4.046135 8.505487 17.306395 33.557140 61.304284 110.777423
2025-07-27 1.614055 3.850643 8.284562 17.206848 33.963976 62.996158 115.438780
2025-08-03 1.477809 3.630056 7.996438 16.957497 34.078590 64.179836 119.268181
2025-08-10 1.382987 3.490300 7.857633 16.984310 34.697795 66.260290 124.713098
2025-08-17 1.312729 3.398521 7.808643 17.182016 35.642387 68.947236 131.309230